As "dip buyers" get eviscerated, more dominos fall, and at a tipping point, the herd realizes the tide has reversed and it's time to sell--but alas, it's too late.
David, RE analysts Amy Nixon and Melody Wright have been reporting on housing markets in the US slipping into imbalances between the number of listings for sale (soaring) and the number of price reductions (also soaring). Speculative buyers are vanishing and they were the source of the bubble.
Timmy, I put myself in the shoes of those tasked with keeping the whole rotten structure glued together for a few more years and I reckon the last thing they will do is stop paying interest on Treasury bonds. They will tax wealth, gold, bitcoin and whatever else still has value long before they stop paying interest on Treasury bonds. At least that's my guess.
These taxes on all forms of "wealth" (i.e. whatever still has value) will be called "windfall taxes" and they will be applied globally, so holding gold and BTC outside the US won't matter. A few well-chosen tax evaders will be thrown in federal prison to "encourage compliance."
"Real estate and private equity funds are highly levered so relatively small changes in asset values can have a large impact on equity values. For example, if a real estate fund's asset values decline by 15% and the assets are levered 60%, the fund's equity value will decline by 37.5%."
The above paragraph is really important and I tried to use a $100 market value equity to derive how this analysis becomes a decline of 37.5% decline. I probably mixed definition of equity with fund values. Can you please show me how to do the calculation. Really great article. Thanks much!!!
David, RE analysts Amy Nixon and Melody Wright have been reporting on housing markets in the US slipping into imbalances between the number of listings for sale (soaring) and the number of price reductions (also soaring). Speculative buyers are vanishing and they were the source of the bubble.
Timmy, I put myself in the shoes of those tasked with keeping the whole rotten structure glued together for a few more years and I reckon the last thing they will do is stop paying interest on Treasury bonds. They will tax wealth, gold, bitcoin and whatever else still has value long before they stop paying interest on Treasury bonds. At least that's my guess.
These taxes on all forms of "wealth" (i.e. whatever still has value) will be called "windfall taxes" and they will be applied globally, so holding gold and BTC outside the US won't matter. A few well-chosen tax evaders will be thrown in federal prison to "encourage compliance."
Maybe I'm wrong, but what are the other options?
warm regards, charles
Was watching some Canada real estate analysis today
They were predicting a significant correction by early 2026
Saw a similar one of USA real estate
Unfortunately so much depends on government policy which can be whimsical and foreign money seeking a place to park it
Little Lichtenstein is having a crisis because of sanctioned assets due to possible association with ethnic Russians
The highest GDP per capita country in the world can suddenly be whacked by a USA government decision
I don't see any "safe" money-making investments. Inflation is eating everything in sight.
Quote paragraph from this article:
"Real estate and private equity funds are highly levered so relatively small changes in asset values can have a large impact on equity values. For example, if a real estate fund's asset values decline by 15% and the assets are levered 60%, the fund's equity value will decline by 37.5%."
The above paragraph is really important and I tried to use a $100 market value equity to derive how this analysis becomes a decline of 37.5% decline. I probably mixed definition of equity with fund values. Can you please show me how to do the calculation. Really great article. Thanks much!!!