From low-Earth orbit, we see only the mighty sprawl of immense power. The internal gearing driving contradictory dynamics is buried beneath the grandeur and the euphoria.
John, you offer a solution that I often promote: decentralized experimentation, i.e. local adaptation. This runs counter to the core dynamic of our era which is centralization / consolidation of power and capital into monopolies, cartels, and state-corporate "crony capitalist" amalgamations of over-regulation serving corporate interests. As you say, something has to break or BAU will continue to be viewed as the "solution" to every problem.
My sense is (as I've laid out in various posts) is that "keystones" crumbling will bring down related sectors. Insurance is increasingly looking like the keystone that may well impact the mortgage industry, real estate development and the real estate bubble.
BJ, do you have a specific recommendation on Lind's work? I see "Reforging Excalibur" and "Retroculture" as interesting. He describes himself as a paleoconservative, which is a very interesting term. I see a general confusion between "traditional" and "conservative" which tends to lump those who promote traditional values as political conservatives, but in my view, traditional values are not necessarily reducible to ideologies or politics. Christopher Lasch's work is a prime example.
Charles, you're so right in mentioning both law and culture--laws alone are skirted, hollowed out or ignored if the culture is corrupt. The laws must reflect what is no longer acceptable to the society at large to be functional limits on behavior. I routinely post the spreadsheet of 1,300 corporate fines as an example of white-collar criminal activity that gets wrist-slaps--no individual ever goes to prison for malfeasance in the US. The laws don't actually restrain bad behavior, and society accepts this because corporate profits drive stocks which are the keystone of private wealth now. Self-interest without any vision of the common good is corrupting, as Emerson and a host of others pointed out in the 19th century.
Shin, a good case can be made that we already inhabit a two-tier system, as the bottom 80% that depend on wages has seen their purchasing power erode for 45 years. Those who own assets such as stocks and rental real estate / Airbnbs have seen their wealth explode higher. Rather than the bottom 80% gaining, what may happen is the top 20%'s bubble wealth vanishes, and that may serve as a catalyst for a reconsideration of Business as Usual as a "solution." warm regards, charles
Thank you all for the comments, which IMO reflect various aspects of BAU--business as usual, which is as noted includes not just models and policies but beliefs and values. BAU works until it doesn't, and then whatever doesn't work is papered over because someone's share of the pie or sacred cow is at risk if the system changes enough to matter. Timmy, that's a very apt analogy-- warm regards, charles
Perhaps the above Catch-20 explains the collapse of all past civilizations. Sometimes, I think humanity is similar to the Tom Cruise movie "Edge of Tomorrow." Tom keeps trying to go forward to a solution but keeps getting killed, which sends him back in time to the beginning of the maze again.
And that's humanity. We try God-Kings, pagan gods, one god, and all those religions and beliefs. We try theocracies, democracies, republics, tyrannies, and aristocracies.
We try socialism, communism, free market capitalism, and fascism.
We try fast food, slow food, no food (fasting), and strange diets. We walk, ride animals, ride bicycles, drive cars, fly, and go into outer space.
The biggest dynamic that shapes the future, is what people believe to be true. (not what is true)
We as humans are very vulnerable to propaganda. We always have been, as evidenced by the number of people willing to fed into the meat grinder known as WWI. The only solution I know of is dialog, which is what we are having here.
As long as the only things people believe, are what they are being told by the MSM, their school textbooks, and the boys at the coffee shop, we have no hope. Hope comes in when we collectively are willing to "think critically", question what we have been told, and be willing to consider the possibility of doing things differently in the future.
Since we are unlikely to get it right the first time, I would hope for a decentralized system that allows "100,000 experiments to happen" and then learn what works, and does not work by doing it, then failing or succeeding. Realistically, the solution for Southern Florida is going to be different than the solution for Northern Saskatchewan. Another reason why we need decentralization that allows local economies / communities to figure it out for themselves.
Right now, this is not possible, but if enough people come to see the wisdom of this approach it might be.
That's quite the Gordian Knot you have there. Just waiting for another Alexander... Yet another Great Leader to "save" us. Substitutions don't have to be inferior. Remember whale oil? Or elephant tusks? Or many of the others that have been replaced. Also keep in mind that our Over Lords models don't deal well with emergent behaviors or patterns. If you are interested in why the Empire has lost every war its been in since WWII, look up the works of William S. Lind. That applies to other aspects of the current global system.
There are fundamental shifts in perspective that must be adopted before we are going to be able to successfully shift to a sustainable and just world. For example, no person is better than, or more privileged than, another. This is not a popular perspective, but it must be enshrined in both law and custom before we can have any realistic hope of creating the new world. There are a number of additional requirements which are ignored by the economists because these things do not meet with the approval of their masters.
A possible workaround is a two tiered system perhaps. One where continued prosperity happens for a select few, and the vast majority settle for increasing dwindling resources.
The point about dwindling competency is very interesting. I'd add increased incompetence amongst the workforce, with those skilled working as consultants. I've seen frequent situations where the person who's job it is to fix a problem, isn't able to and then a freelance contractor has come in and fix the issue. Speks to the over complexity point and fragility.
Most important for me is how to position yourself basis the glaring predicaments.
Appreciate your efforts Charles in wrestling with these issues
I keep thinking we are surrounded by various types of “fraud”
I know fraud is not actually correct because there is some reality embedded
For example are supposed to have a demigod president omniscient omnipotent
But usually get a second rate law school graduate
Also we have these trillion dollar tech companies that really don’t improve our lives in terms of affordable shelter healthy food quality affordable healthcare or clean drinking water or clean air
We get EVs which no one needs and apparently are worse carbon wise than ICEs when consider production of vehicle all the mining disposal child labor in the Congo etc
So there is an illusion of progress of democracy which is really oligarchy endless wars same as 2000 years ago etc
But in any case enjoy the beauty that nature provides
John, you offer a solution that I often promote: decentralized experimentation, i.e. local adaptation. This runs counter to the core dynamic of our era which is centralization / consolidation of power and capital into monopolies, cartels, and state-corporate "crony capitalist" amalgamations of over-regulation serving corporate interests. As you say, something has to break or BAU will continue to be viewed as the "solution" to every problem.
My sense is (as I've laid out in various posts) is that "keystones" crumbling will bring down related sectors. Insurance is increasingly looking like the keystone that may well impact the mortgage industry, real estate development and the real estate bubble.
BJ, do you have a specific recommendation on Lind's work? I see "Reforging Excalibur" and "Retroculture" as interesting. He describes himself as a paleoconservative, which is a very interesting term. I see a general confusion between "traditional" and "conservative" which tends to lump those who promote traditional values as political conservatives, but in my view, traditional values are not necessarily reducible to ideologies or politics. Christopher Lasch's work is a prime example.
Charles, you're so right in mentioning both law and culture--laws alone are skirted, hollowed out or ignored if the culture is corrupt. The laws must reflect what is no longer acceptable to the society at large to be functional limits on behavior. I routinely post the spreadsheet of 1,300 corporate fines as an example of white-collar criminal activity that gets wrist-slaps--no individual ever goes to prison for malfeasance in the US. The laws don't actually restrain bad behavior, and society accepts this because corporate profits drive stocks which are the keystone of private wealth now. Self-interest without any vision of the common good is corrupting, as Emerson and a host of others pointed out in the 19th century.
Shin, a good case can be made that we already inhabit a two-tier system, as the bottom 80% that depend on wages has seen their purchasing power erode for 45 years. Those who own assets such as stocks and rental real estate / Airbnbs have seen their wealth explode higher. Rather than the bottom 80% gaining, what may happen is the top 20%'s bubble wealth vanishes, and that may serve as a catalyst for a reconsideration of Business as Usual as a "solution." warm regards, charles
Thank you all for the comments, which IMO reflect various aspects of BAU--business as usual, which is as noted includes not just models and policies but beliefs and values. BAU works until it doesn't, and then whatever doesn't work is papered over because someone's share of the pie or sacred cow is at risk if the system changes enough to matter. Timmy, that's a very apt analogy-- warm regards, charles
Perhaps the above Catch-20 explains the collapse of all past civilizations. Sometimes, I think humanity is similar to the Tom Cruise movie "Edge of Tomorrow." Tom keeps trying to go forward to a solution but keeps getting killed, which sends him back in time to the beginning of the maze again.
And that's humanity. We try God-Kings, pagan gods, one god, and all those religions and beliefs. We try theocracies, democracies, republics, tyrannies, and aristocracies.
We try socialism, communism, free market capitalism, and fascism.
We try fast food, slow food, no food (fasting), and strange diets. We walk, ride animals, ride bicycles, drive cars, fly, and go into outer space.
And here we are again at Catch-20.
Back to beginning of Snakes & Ladders we go.
Hilarious love it
The biggest dynamic that shapes the future, is what people believe to be true. (not what is true)
We as humans are very vulnerable to propaganda. We always have been, as evidenced by the number of people willing to fed into the meat grinder known as WWI. The only solution I know of is dialog, which is what we are having here.
As long as the only things people believe, are what they are being told by the MSM, their school textbooks, and the boys at the coffee shop, we have no hope. Hope comes in when we collectively are willing to "think critically", question what we have been told, and be willing to consider the possibility of doing things differently in the future.
Since we are unlikely to get it right the first time, I would hope for a decentralized system that allows "100,000 experiments to happen" and then learn what works, and does not work by doing it, then failing or succeeding. Realistically, the solution for Southern Florida is going to be different than the solution for Northern Saskatchewan. Another reason why we need decentralization that allows local economies / communities to figure it out for themselves.
Right now, this is not possible, but if enough people come to see the wisdom of this approach it might be.
That's quite the Gordian Knot you have there. Just waiting for another Alexander... Yet another Great Leader to "save" us. Substitutions don't have to be inferior. Remember whale oil? Or elephant tusks? Or many of the others that have been replaced. Also keep in mind that our Over Lords models don't deal well with emergent behaviors or patterns. If you are interested in why the Empire has lost every war its been in since WWII, look up the works of William S. Lind. That applies to other aspects of the current global system.
There are fundamental shifts in perspective that must be adopted before we are going to be able to successfully shift to a sustainable and just world. For example, no person is better than, or more privileged than, another. This is not a popular perspective, but it must be enshrined in both law and custom before we can have any realistic hope of creating the new world. There are a number of additional requirements which are ignored by the economists because these things do not meet with the approval of their masters.
A possible workaround is a two tiered system perhaps. One where continued prosperity happens for a select few, and the vast majority settle for increasing dwindling resources.
The point about dwindling competency is very interesting. I'd add increased incompetence amongst the workforce, with those skilled working as consultants. I've seen frequent situations where the person who's job it is to fix a problem, isn't able to and then a freelance contractor has come in and fix the issue. Speks to the over complexity point and fragility.
Most important for me is how to position yourself basis the glaring predicaments.
Something inquired about yesterday
2024 GDP growth 6.3 percent
Government deficit as percentage of GDP 7 percent
So essentially was no growth last year in economy except government driven
So we are in stagflation at least in private sector
Unfortunately our “leaders” don’t have the integrity to do the work to figure out why these trillion dollar companies are not creating growth
Using that as measure as it’s their own measure
Appreciate your efforts Charles in wrestling with these issues
I keep thinking we are surrounded by various types of “fraud”
I know fraud is not actually correct because there is some reality embedded
For example are supposed to have a demigod president omniscient omnipotent
But usually get a second rate law school graduate
Also we have these trillion dollar tech companies that really don’t improve our lives in terms of affordable shelter healthy food quality affordable healthcare or clean drinking water or clean air
We get EVs which no one needs and apparently are worse carbon wise than ICEs when consider production of vehicle all the mining disposal child labor in the Congo etc
So there is an illusion of progress of democracy which is really oligarchy endless wars same as 2000 years ago etc
But in any case enjoy the beauty that nature provides