Will Hollywood and the Music Industry Survive the Super-Abundance of Original AI Content?
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Longtime correspondent / friend Richard M. recently recommended this 24-minute overview of recent advances in AI tools that generate video content based on text / language prompts / instructions such as "handheld shot, man holding a beer in a 4th of July party." Is Runway Gen-3 Worth the Hype? Our AI Video Review (24:51 min)
I haven't followed the development of these technologies, so this was revelatory on multiple levels.
Like ChatGPT and other Large Language Model (LLM) tools, the interface of these video generation tools is something we already know: language. Like the other LLM tools, these tools can "hallucinate," generating images that are not realistic / not based on physics.
The demonstrations use free online versions of the tools, so they're limited to 10 seconds or so of video rendering. But this is enough to see the future of these tools: they'll be capable of generating original programs of a half-hour, hour or full-length movies (2 hours) on a conventional PC. (Faster computers = faster rendering times.)
The quality of the sample videos is remarkable. Yes, experts can quibble, but for the non-expert viewer, it's close enough to film to be useful.
Like any video product, there are editing tools (not shown in this overview) that must be mastered if one is aiming for a film-quality product with soundtrack, dialog and the splicing / editing of scenes to carry the narrative. But the ability of these tools to generate raw "footage" that can be massaged / edited into a final product is impressive.
What strikes me is that this new pathway in the production, distribution and consumption of visual / musical media will enable consumers to create their own content rather than passively buy mass-marketed content created by others.
Let's consider several scenarios of how these AI tools could be used once they reach maturity.
We just watched Babylon Berlin, an absorbing, high-production-value German drama set in the late 1920s and early 1930s in Berlin. (Four completed seasons, a 5th and final to start filming later this year.)
Though Season Five is yet to come, we know the series ends in 1933 with the Nazis taking power. Suppose I wish there were a Season Six, but alas, the series has come to a close. Why not use one of these tools to generate a Sixth series "in the style of" Babylon Berlin?
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