The Two Causes of the Coming Great Depression

But the status quo has much to unlearn, and it seems the only pathway to a new understanding is a Great Depression.

There are two approaches to analyzing a situation:

1. Choose the desired outcome--generally the one that doesn't require any major changes, sacrifices or downward mobility.

2. Identify the initial conditions and systemic dynamics and then follow these to a conclusion back-tested by comparisons with historical outcomes.

Our default setting as humans is 1: s…